What Strain Of COVID Is Going Around Now?

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Being a newborn in 2023, and almost certainly every year thereafter, means immersing yourself in a world where the coronavirus is rampant. Babies may not encounter the virus in the first week or month of life, but very soon SARS-CoV-2 will find them. "Anybody born into this world won't take long to get infected," says Katia Koelle, a virologist and infectious disease modeler at Emory University. Undoubtedly, this virus will be one of the first serious pathogens that babies today and all babies of the future will encounter.

Three years after the coronavirus pandemic, these babies are at the forefront of a generational shift that will define the rest of our relationship with SARS-CoV-2. She and her slightly older peers would be the first people who might still be alive when COVID-19 does indeed reach a new tipping point: when almost everyone on earth has acquired some level of immunity to the virus as a that very young child.

This future crossroads may not look so different from where the world is right now. Because vaccines are now common in most countries and the virus is so transmissible, a large majority of people have some level of immunity. And in recent months, the world has begun to see the consequences of this change. The flow of COVID cases and hospitalizations in most countries appears to be stabilizing in a seasonal sine wave; The disease has become less severe on average, and long-term COVID seems slightly less likely in people recently vaccinated. Even the evolution of the virus appears to be slow, making small changes to its genetic code rather than major changes that require a different name in Greek letters.

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